Manchester United 3–2 Fulham: Result & Stats

Manchester United

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Fulham

B. Sesko 90'

M. Cunha 56'

Casemiro 19'

Kevin 90'

R. Jimenez 85' (pen)

2/1/2026

Premier League · Round 24Old Trafford

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Manchester United55%

×Draw23%

Fulham22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester UnitedExpected goals in this matchFulham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.12

Manchester United

1.88

Fulham

1.12

Manchester United creates 68% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 36 away

2.17

creates per match

1.11

1.12

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Manchester United

2.17

Fulham

1.11

allows per match

Manchester United

1.12

Fulham

1.59

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Manchester United-0.26scores less

Fulham-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United ↓

Fulham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Manchester United or draw

78%

Manchester United or Fulham

77%

Draw or Fulham

45%

Winning margin

Manchester United wins by 2+

32%

Fulham wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Manchester United 1+ goals

85%

Manchester United 2+ goals

56%

Manchester United 3+ goals

29%

Fulham 1+ goals

67%

Fulham 2+ goals

31%

Fulham 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Manchester United (draw refunded)

71%

Fulham (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Fulham away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.59 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United attack 2.17 + Fulham defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.88

Fulham attack 1.11 + Manchester United defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Manchester United scores more

55%

level

23%

Fulham scores more

22%

Manchester United at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Matheus CunhaPenalty cancelled

19'

Casemiro↳ B. Fernandes

42'

Joachim Andersen

56'

M. Cunha↳ Casemiro

64'

Casemiro

69'

Jorge CuencaGoal cancelled

71'

R. Sessegnon← A. Robinson

71'

Kevin← E. Smith Rowe

74'

B. Sesko← M. Cunha

75'

M. Ugarte← Casemiro

79'

T. Cairney← S. Chukwueze

83'

Harry Maguire

85'

R. JimenezPenalty

86'

N. Mazraoui← D. Dalot

86'

C. Bassey← J. Cuenca

90+6'

L. Yoro← B. Mbeumo

90'

Kevin↳ R. Sessegnon

90'

B. Sesko↳ B. Fernandes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterFulham

Overview

42%Possession58%

13Total Shots14

1.79Expected Goals (xG)1.94

3Corners7

6Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots14

6On Target6

4Off Target3

3Blocked5

12Inside Box8

1Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

428Total Passes576

372Accurate Passes517

87%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

-0.56Goals Prevented-0.56

Discipline

6Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2

Premier League: Manchester United 3–2 Fulham

Manchester United beat Fulham 3-2 in Premier League on February 1, 2026.

Goals: Casemiro (19'), M. Cunha (56'), R. Jimenez (85' pen), Kevin (90'), B. Sesko (90').

Fulham controlled possession (58%) and registered 14 shots to 13.

The match was played at Old Trafford in Manchester.

Manchester United vs Fulham — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Manchester United 3–2 Fulham