Fulham 0–1 Manchester United: Result & Stats

Fulham

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Manchester United

Lisandro Martínez 78'

1/26/2025

Premier League · Round 23Craven Cottage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 36+ matches

Fulham39%

×Draw26%

Manchester United35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FulhamExpected goals in this matchManchester United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.31

Fulham

1.39

Manchester United

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 36 away

1.23

creates per match

1.37

1.26

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Fulham

1.23

Manchester United

1.37

allows per match

Fulham

1.26

Manchester United

1.55

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Fulham+0.29scores more

Manchester United-0.09on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham ↓

Manchester United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Fulham or draw

65%

Fulham or Manchester United

74%

Draw or Manchester United

61%

Winning margin

Fulham wins by 2+

18%

Manchester United wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fulham 1+ goals

75%

Fulham 2+ goals

40%

Fulham 3+ goals

16%

Manchester United 1+ goals

73%

Manchester United 2+ goals

38%

Manchester United 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Fulham (draw refunded)

52%

Manchester United (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulham at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.26 · 42 matches

Manchester United away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.55 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulham attack 1.23 + Manchester United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.39

Manchester United attack 1.37 + Fulham defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fulham scores more

39%

level

26%

Manchester United scores more

35%

Fulham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Lisandro Martínez

Manchester United · D

8.3

Match Events

53'

Adama Traoré← H. Wilson

58'

L. Yoro← M. de Ligt

58'

J. Zirkzee← R. Højlund

64'

Rodrigo Muniz← R. Jiménez

73'

Manuel Ugarte

76'

T. Collyer← M. Ugarte

78'

Lisandro Martínez

81'

K. Mainoo← A. Garnacho

81'

T. Malacia← N. Mazraoui

82'

T. Cairney← S. Lukić

82'

Andreas Pereira← E. Smith Rowe

90+6'

Amad DialloGoal cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FulhamManchester

Overview

51%Possession49%

9Total Shots4

0.67Expected Goals (xG)0.25

3Corners0

7Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots4

3On Target1

6Off Target2

0Blocked1

8Inside Box1

1Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

496Total Passes491

413Accurate Passes412

83%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

0.19Goals Prevented0.19

Discipline

7Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2