Manchester United 0–2 Cardiff: Result & Stats

Manchester United

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cardiff

N. Mendez-Laing 54', 23' (pen)

5/12/2019

Premier League · Round 38Old Trafford

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Manchester United62%

×Draw22%

Cardiff15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester UnitedExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.76

Manchester United

1.81

Cardiff

0.76

Manchester United creates 138% more chances

Season form · 202 home / 26 away

1.81

creates per match

0.58

0.94

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Manchester United

1.81

Cardiff

0.58

allows per match

Manchester United

0.94

Cardiff

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manchester United+0.00on par

Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Manchester United or draw

85%

Manchester United or Cardiff

78%

Draw or Cardiff

38%

Winning margin

Manchester United wins by 2+

36%

Cardiff wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Manchester United 1+ goals

84%

Manchester United 2+ goals

54%

Manchester United 3+ goals

27%

Cardiff 1+ goals

53%

Cardiff 2+ goals

18%

Cardiff 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Manchester United (draw refunded)

80%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.94 · 202 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United attack 1.81 + Cardiff defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.81

Cardiff attack 0.58 + Manchester United defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Manchester United scores more

62%

level

22%

Cardiff scores more

15%

Manchester United at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

N. Etheridge

Cardiff · G

9.5

Match Events

23'

N. Mendez-LaingPenalty

28'

Leandro Bacuna

44'

Andreas Pereira

46'

A. Martial← P. Jones

54'

N. Mendez-Laing↳ Josh Murphy

58'

J. Richards← A. Gunnarsson

61'

Paul Pogba

61'

Josh Murphy

71'

Jesse Lingard

74'

A. Valencia← Diogo Dalot

74'

A. Gomes← Andreas Pereira

74'

D. Ward← K. Zohorè

80'

J. Hoilett← N. Mendez-Laing

90'

Sean Morrison

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterCardiff

Overview

73%Possession27%

26Total Shots13

11Corners2

9Fouls6

Shots

26Total Shots13

10On Target4

10Off Target6

6Blocked3

13Inside Box6

13Outside Box7

Passing

73%Possession27%

620Total Passes223

526Accurate Passes128

85%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

2Saves10

Discipline

9Fouls6

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0