Cardiff 1–5 Manchester United: Result & Stats

Cardiff

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 3

Manchester United

Víctor Camarasa 38' (pen)

J. Lingard 90', 57' (pen)

A. Martial 41'

Ander Herrera 29'

M. Rashford 3'

12/22/2018

Premier League · Round 18Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Cardiff25%

×Draw23%

Manchester United52%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchManchester United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.77

Cardiff

1.15

Manchester United

1.77

Manchester United creates 54% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 203 away

1.00

creates per match

1.38

2.17

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Cardiff

1.00

Manchester United

1.38

allows per match

Cardiff

2.17

Manchester United

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par

Manchester United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Manchester United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

48%

Cardiff or Manchester United

77%

Draw or Manchester United

75%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

10%

Manchester United wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

68%

Cardiff 2+ goals

32%

Cardiff 3+ goals

11%

Manchester United 1+ goals

83%

Manchester United 2+ goals

53%

Manchester United 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

32%

Manchester United (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 24 matches

Manchester United away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.30 · 203 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.00 + Manchester United defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Manchester United attack 1.38 + Cardiff defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cardiff scores more

25%

level

23%

Manchester United scores more

52%

Manchester United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

J. Lingard

Manchester United · F

9.5

Match Events

3'

M. Rashford

29'

Ander Herrera↳ P. Pogba

35'

Luke Shaw

38'

Víctor CamarasaPenalty

41'

A. Martial↳ J. Lingard

57'

J. LingardPenalty

58'

Aron Gunnarsson

61'

K. Zohorè← H. Arter

74'

K. Harris← J. Hoilett

79'

Greg Cunningham

79'

Fred← M. Rashford

83'

J. Ralls← A. Gunnarsson

87'

Andreas Pereira← A. Martial

87'

M. Fellaini← N. Matić

90'

J. Lingard↳ P. Pogba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffManchester

Overview

25%Possession75%

9Total Shots17

4Corners7

13Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots17

3On Target9

5Off Target4

1Blocked4

8Inside Box9

1Outside Box8

Passing

25%Possession75%

209Total Passes640

137Accurate Passes554

66%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0