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Manchester City W vs Crystal Palace W — FA WSL 2018

Manchester City W
Manchester City W
FT
5 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Crystal Palace W
Crystal Palace W
5/10/2025FA WSLFA WSL · Round 22Joie Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Manchester City W78%
×Draw13%
Crystal Palace W9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester City W
3.00
Crystal Palace W
0.92

Manchester City W creates 226% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 11 away

creates per match

Manchester City W
2.91
Crystal Palace W
1.00

allows per match

Manchester City W
0.84
Crystal Palace W
3.09

finishing

Manchester City W+0.00on par
Crystal Palace W+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City W ↓

Crystal Palace W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Manchester City W or draw
91%
Manchester City W or Crystal Palace W
87%
Draw or Crystal Palace W
22%

Winning margin

Manchester City W wins by 2+
59%
Crystal Palace W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Manchester City W 1+ goals
95%
Manchester City W 2+ goals
79%
Manchester City W 3+ goals
56%
Crystal Palace W 1+ goals
60%
Crystal Palace W 2+ goals
23%
Crystal Palace W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Manchester City W (draw refunded)
90%
Crystal Palace W (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City W at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.84 · 85 matches

Crystal Palace W away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City W attack 2.91 + Crystal Palace W defence 3.09 → ÷2 → 3.00

Crystal Palace W attack 1.00 + Manchester City W defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Manchester City W scores more
78%
level
13%
Crystal Palace W scores more
9%

Manchester City W at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Manchester City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA WSL: Manchester City W 5–2 Crystal Palace W

Manchester City W beat Crystal Palace W 5-2 in FA WSL on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Joie Stadium in Manchester.