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Crystal Palace W vs Manchester City W — FA WSL 2018

Crystal Palace W
Crystal Palace W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Manchester City W
Manchester City W
11/3/2024FA WSLFA WSL · Round 6Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Crystal Palace W11%
×Draw16%
Manchester City W73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crystal Palace W
0.88
Manchester City W
2.56

Manchester City W creates 191% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 83 away

creates per match

Crystal Palace W
0.82
Manchester City W
2.31

allows per match

Crystal Palace W
2.82
Manchester City W
0.93

finishing

Crystal Palace W+0.00on par
Manchester City W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace W ↓

Manchester City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–211%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Crystal Palace W or draw
27%
Crystal Palace W or Manchester City W
84%
Draw or Manchester City W
89%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace W wins by 2+
3%
Manchester City W wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Crystal Palace W 1+ goals
59%
Crystal Palace W 2+ goals
22%
Crystal Palace W 3+ goals
6%
Manchester City W 1+ goals
92%
Manchester City W 2+ goals
72%
Manchester City W 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace W (draw refunded)
13%
Manchester City W (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace W at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

Manchester City W away — creates 2.31, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace W attack 0.82 + Manchester City W defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.88

Manchester City W attack 2.31 + Crystal Palace W defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Crystal Palace W scores more
11%
level
16%
Manchester City W scores more
73%

Manchester City W at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Manchester City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA WSL: Crystal Palace W 0–3 Manchester City W

Manchester City W beat Crystal Palace W 3-0 in FA WSL on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Selhurst Park in London.