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Manchester City W vs Atletico Madrid W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Manchester City W
Manchester City W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Atletico Madrid W
Atletico Madrid W
10/16/2019UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 8th FinalsAcademy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Manchester City W54%
×Draw22%
Atletico Madrid W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester City W
1.94
Atletico Madrid W
1.21

Manchester City W creates 60% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

Manchester City W
2.31
Atletico Madrid W
2.11

allows per match

Manchester City W
0.31
Atletico Madrid W
1.56

finishing

Manchester City W+0.00on par
Atletico Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City W ↓

Atletico Madrid W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Manchester City W or draw
76%
Manchester City W or Atletico Madrid W
78%
Draw or Atletico Madrid W
46%

Winning margin

Manchester City W wins by 2+
31%
Atletico Madrid W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Manchester City W 1+ goals
86%
Manchester City W 2+ goals
58%
Manchester City W 3+ goals
30%
Atletico Madrid W 1+ goals
70%
Atletico Madrid W 2+ goals
34%
Atletico Madrid W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Manchester City W (draw refunded)
70%
Atletico Madrid W (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City W at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.31 · 13 matches

Atletico Madrid W away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City W attack 2.31 + Atletico Madrid W defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.94

Atletico Madrid W attack 2.11 + Manchester City W defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Manchester City W scores more
54%
level
22%
Atletico Madrid W scores more
24%

Manchester City W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Manchester City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manchester City W vs Atletico Madrid W

Manchester City W and Atletico Madrid W drew 1-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on October 16, 2019.

The match was played at Academy Stadium in Manchester.