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Atletico Madrid W vs Manchester City W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Atletico Madrid W
Atletico Madrid W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Manchester City W
Manchester City W
10/30/2019UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 8th FinalsEstadio Wanda Atlético de Madrid Alcalá de Henares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Atletico Madrid W33%
×Draw23%
Manchester City W44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Madrid W
1.52
Manchester City W
1.78

Manchester City W creates 17% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Atletico Madrid W
1.50
Manchester City W
2.36

allows per match

Atletico Madrid W
1.20
Manchester City W
1.55

finishing

Atletico Madrid W+0.00on par
Manchester City W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Madrid W ↓

Manchester City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Atletico Madrid W or draw
56%
Atletico Madrid W or Manchester City W
77%
Draw or Manchester City W
67%

Winning margin

Atletico Madrid W wins by 2+
16%
Manchester City W wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Atletico Madrid W 1+ goals
78%
Atletico Madrid W 2+ goals
45%
Atletico Madrid W 3+ goals
20%
Manchester City W 1+ goals
83%
Manchester City W 2+ goals
53%
Manchester City W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Atletico Madrid W (draw refunded)
43%
Manchester City W (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Madrid W at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Manchester City W away — creates 2.36, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Madrid W attack 1.50 + Manchester City W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Manchester City W attack 2.36 + Atletico Madrid W defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atletico Madrid W scores more
33%
level
23%
Manchester City W scores more
44%

Manchester City W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Manchester City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Atletico Madrid W 2–1 Manchester City W

Atletico Madrid W beat Manchester City W 2-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on October 30, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Wanda Atlético de Madrid Alcalá de Henares in Madrid.