Manchester City 2–1 Swansea: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Swansea

K. Iheanacho 90+2'

W. Bony 26'

B. Gomis 90'

12/12/2015

Premier League · Round 16Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Manchester City67%

×Draw19%

Swansea14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

0.88

Manchester City

2.20

Swansea

0.88

Manchester City creates 150% more chances

Season form · 200 home / 74 away

2.70

creates per match

0.93

0.83

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Manchester City

2.70

Swansea

0.93

allows per match

Manchester City

0.83

Swansea

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manchester City+0.00on par

Swansea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

86%

Manchester City or Swansea

81%

Draw or Swansea

33%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

43%

Swansea wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

89%

Manchester City 2+ goals

64%

Manchester City 3+ goals

37%

Swansea 1+ goals

59%

Swansea 2+ goals

22%

Swansea 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

83%

Swansea (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.83 · 200 matches

Swansea away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.69 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.70 + Swansea defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.20

Swansea attack 0.93 + Manchester City defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Manchester City scores more

67%

level

19%

Swansea scores more

14%

Manchester City at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42

Y. Touré

Manchester City · M

8.1

Match Events

26'

W. Bony↳ Jesús Navas

43'

Neil Taylor

46'

F. Delph← R. Sterling

58'

Wilfried Bony

60'

Bacary Sagna

68'

K. De Bruyne← David Silva

75'

J. Montero← L. Britton

76'

M. Barrow← W. Routledge

77'

Eliaquim Mangala

83'

B. Gomis← A. Ayew

84'

K. Iheanacho← W. Bony

90'

B. Gomis↳ F. Fernández

90+2'

K. Iheanacho↳ Y. Touré

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterSwansea

Overview

53%Possession47%

13Total Shots13

5Corners5

0Fouls0

Shots

13Total Shots13

5On Target7

4Off Target3

4Blocked3

8Inside Box10

5Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

557Total Passes492

496Accurate Passes431

89%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

0Fouls0

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides6