Manchester City 0–0 Inter: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Inter

9/18/2024

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 1Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Manchester City41%

×Draw25%

Inter35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchInter

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.40

Manchester City

1.54

Inter

1.40

Manchester City creates 10% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.85

creates per match

1.74

1.05

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Manchester City

1.85

Inter

1.74

allows per match

Manchester City

1.05

Inter

1.22

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

Manchester City-0.42scores less

Inter-0.31scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Inter →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

65%

Manchester City or Inter

75%

Draw or Inter

59%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

20%

Inter wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

79%

Manchester City 2+ goals

45%

Manchester City 3+ goals

20%

Inter 1+ goals

75%

Inter 2+ goals

41%

Inter 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

54%

Inter (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.05 · 7 matches

Inter away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.22 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 1.85 + Inter defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.54

Inter attack 1.74 + Manchester City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Manchester City scores more

41%

level

25%

Inter scores more

35%

Manchester City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

J. Gvardiol

Manchester City · D

8.6

Match Events

33'

Rúben Dias

46'

İ. Gündoğan← K. De Bruyne

46'

P. Foden← Savinho

65'

Lautaro Martínez← M. Thuram

66'

H. Mkhitaryan← P. Zieliński

75'

D. Dumfries← M. Darmian

75'

B. Pavard← Y. Bisseck

80'

J. Doku← Bernardo Silva

82'

D. Frattesi← H. Çalhanoğlu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterInter

Overview

60%Possession40%

22Total Shots13

2.35Expected Goals (xG)0.75

4Corners3

12Fouls9

Shots

22Total Shots13

5On Target4

10Off Target7

7Blocked2

16Inside Box8

6Outside Box5

Passing

60%Possession40%

651Total Passes437

597Accurate Passes376

92%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

1.20Goals Prevented1.20

Discipline

12Fouls9

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides3