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Manchester City vs Inter — UEFA Champions League 2026

Manchester City
Manchester Cityadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Inter
Inter
Rodri 68'
6/10/2023UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · FinalAtatürk Olimpiyat Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Manchester City35%
×Draw25%
Inter40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester City
1.40
Inter
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Manchester City
1.77
Inter
1.90

allows per match

Manchester City
1.09
Inter
1.03

finishing

Manchester City-0.10scores less
Inter-0.23scores less

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Inter →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw
60%
Manchester City or Inter
75%
Draw or Inter
65%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+
16%
Inter wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals
75%
Manchester City 2+ goals
41%
Manchester City 3+ goals
17%
Inter 1+ goals
78%
Inter 2+ goals
44%
Inter 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)
47%
Inter (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.09 · 6 matches

Inter away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.03 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 1.77 + Inter defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.40

Inter attack 1.90 + Manchester City defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Manchester City scores more
35%
level
25%
Inter scores more
40%

Inter at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
EdersonManchester CityManchester City · G
8.2

Match Events

36'
P. Foden← K. De Bruyne
57'
R. Lukaku← E. Džeko
59'
Nicolò Barella
68'
Rodri
76'
R. Gosens← A. Bastoni
76'
R. Bellanova← D. Dumfries
82'
K. Walker← J. Stones
83'
Romelu Lukaku
84'
H. Mkhitaryan← H. Çalhanoğlu
84'
D. D'Ambrosio← M. Darmian
90+4'
Ederson
90+2'
Erling Haaland
90+2'
André Onana

Possession

56%Manchester

Shots

7Manchester

Pass accuracy

51%Manchester

Statistics

ManchesterInter
Overview
56%Possession44%
7Total Shots14
0.99Expected Goals (xG)1.68
2Corners4
11Fouls17
Shots
7Total Shots14
4On Target6
3Off Target7
0Blocked1
5Inside Box9
2Outside Box5
Passing
56%Possession44%
512Total Passes394
443Accurate Passes325
87%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls17
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Manchester City vs Inter

Manchester City beat Inter 1-0 in UEFA Champions League on June 10, 2023.

Goals: Rodri (68').

Manchester City controlled possession (56%) and registered 7 shots to 14.

The match was played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı in İstanbul.