Manchester City 0–0 Huddersfield: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Huddersfield

5/6/2018

Premier League · Round 37Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Manchester City74%

×Draw16%

Huddersfield10%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.73

Manchester City

2.38

Huddersfield

0.73

Manchester City creates 226% more chances

Season form · 200 home / 38 away

2.70

creates per match

0.63

0.83

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Manchester City

2.70

Huddersfield

0.63

allows per match

Manchester City

0.83

Huddersfield

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manchester City+0.00on par

Huddersfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Huddersfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

90%

Manchester City or Huddersfield

84%

Draw or Huddersfield

26%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

51%

Huddersfield wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

91%

Manchester City 2+ goals

68%

Manchester City 3+ goals

42%

Huddersfield 1+ goals

52%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

17%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

88%

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.83 · 200 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.70 + Huddersfield defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.38

Huddersfield attack 0.63 + Manchester City defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Manchester City scores more

74%

level

16%

Huddersfield scores more

10%

Manchester City at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

N. Otamendi

Manchester City · D

7.6

Match Events

57'

B. Mendy← F. Delph

60'

L. Depoitre← S. Mounié

66'

Tommy Smith

67'

İ. Gündoğan← K. De Bruyne

73'

Bernardo Silva← J. Stones

76'

Chris Löwe

78'

S. Malone← C. Löwe

82'

R. van La Parra← A. Pritchard

87'

Rajiv Van La Parra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterHuddersfield

Overview

79%Possession21%

15Total Shots5

10Corners1

9Fouls4

Shots

15Total Shots5

2On Target3

10Off Target2

3Blocked0

9Inside Box2

6Outside Box3

Passing

79%Possession21%

720Total Passes193

630Accurate Passes108

88%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls4

0Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1