Huddersfield 0–3 Manchester City: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Manchester City

L. Sané 56'

R. Sterling 54'

Danilo 18'

1/20/2019

Premier League · Round 23John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Huddersfield17%

×Draw24%

Manchester City59%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.81

1.73

Huddersfield

0.81

Manchester City

1.73

Manchester City creates 114% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 200 away

0.68

creates per match

1.99

1.47

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Huddersfield

0.68

Manchester City

1.99

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.47

Manchester City

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huddersfield+0.00on par

Manchester City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–114%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

41%

Huddersfield or Manchester City

76%

Draw or Manchester City

83%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

5%

Manchester City wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

56%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

19%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

5%

Manchester City 1+ goals

82%

Manchester City 2+ goals

52%

Manchester City 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

23%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.99, concedes 0.95 · 200 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 0.68 + Manchester City defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.81

Manchester City attack 1.99 + Huddersfield defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Huddersfield scores more

17%

level

24%

Manchester City scores more

59%

Manchester City at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Danilo

Manchester City · D

8.4

Match Events

18'

Danilo↳ K. Walker

27'

30'

43'

50'

54'

56'

59'

S. Mounié← A. Diakhaby

59'

David Silva← Fernandinho

64'

A. Pritchard← J. Bacuna

72'

Bernardo Silva← L. Sané

80'

F. Delph← İ. Gündoğan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldManchester

Overview

32%Possession68%

5Total Shots12

1Corners4

10Fouls9

Shots

5Total Shots12

2On Target4

3Off Target6

0Blocked2

3Inside Box10

2Outside Box2

Passing

32%Possession68%

345Total Passes734

249Accurate Passes641

72%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2