Manchester City 5–1 Burnley: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Burnley

E. Haaland 90', 90'

M. Esteve 65' (OG), 12' (OG)

M. Nunes 61'

J. Anthony 38'

9/27/2025

Premier League · Round 6Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Manchester City66%

×Draw20%

Burnley14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.86

Manchester City

2.10

Burnley

0.86

Manchester City creates 144% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 21 away

2.11

creates per match

0.79

0.94

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Manchester City

2.11

Burnley

0.79

allows per match

Manchester City

0.94

Burnley

2.10

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

Manchester City+0.32scores more

Burnley+0.40scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

86%

Manchester City or Burnley

80%

Draw or Burnley

34%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

41%

Burnley wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

88%

Manchester City 2+ goals

62%

Manchester City 3+ goals

35%

Burnley 1+ goals

58%

Burnley 2+ goals

21%

Burnley 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

82%

Burnley (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.94 · 37 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.11 + Burnley defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.10

Burnley attack 0.79 + Manchester City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Manchester City scores more

66%

level

20%

Burnley scores more

14%

Manchester City at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

M. EsteveOwn goal

27'

Quilindschy Hartman

30'

Kyle Walker

38'

J. Anthony↳ Q. Hartman

61'

M. Nunes↳ E. Haaland

62'

O. Bobb← Savinho

62'

J. Bruun Larsen← L. Tchaouna

63'

Jaidon Anthony

65'

M. EsteveOwn goal

70'

N. Ake← J. Gvardiol

79'

A. Broja← J. Cullen

80'

L. Ugochukwu← L. Foster

83'

Phil Foden

83'

R. Lewis← N. O'Reilly

83'

B. Silva← T. Reijnders

88'

H. Mejbri← Q. Hartman

88'

B. Humphreys← J. Anthony

90'

E. Haaland↳ J. Doku

90'

E. Haaland

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterBurnley

Overview

69%Possession31%

21Total Shots9

2.03Expected Goals (xG)0.41

10Corners2

5Fouls7

Shots

21Total Shots9

8On Target2

7Off Target2

6Blocked5

13Inside Box5

8Outside Box4

Passing

69%Possession31%

638Total Passes295

566Accurate Passes242

89%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

-2.25Goals Prevented-2.25

Discipline

5Fouls7

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1