Manchester City 2–0 Burnley: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Burnley

K. De Bruyne 70'

Bernardo Silva 12'

10/16/2021

Premier League · Round 8Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Manchester City65%

×Draw20%

Burnley15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.86

Manchester City

2.06

Burnley

0.86

Manchester City creates 140% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 20 away

2.04

creates per match

0.72

1.01

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Manchester City

2.04

Burnley

0.72

allows per match

Manchester City

1.01

Burnley

2.08

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Manchester City+0.22scores more

Burnley+0.33scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

85%

Manchester City or Burnley

80%

Draw or Burnley

35%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

41%

Burnley wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

87%

Manchester City 2+ goals

61%

Manchester City 3+ goals

34%

Burnley 1+ goals

58%

Burnley 2+ goals

21%

Burnley 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

81%

Burnley (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.01 · 27 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.08 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.04 + Burnley defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.06

Burnley attack 0.72 + Manchester City defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Manchester City scores more

65%

level

20%

Burnley scores more

15%

Manchester City at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Bernardo Silva

Manchester City · M

7.7

Match Events

12'

45+3'

56'

70'

72'

Rúben Dias← Aymeric Laporte

72'

J. Guðmundsson← J. Cork

82'

J. Rodriguez← C. Wood

84'

Fernandinho← K. De Bruyne

90+1'

C. Palmer← Bernardo Silva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterBurnley

Overview

71%Possession29%

15Total Shots7

6Corners2

11Fouls5

Shots

15Total Shots7

6On Target2

5Off Target4

4Blocked1

13Inside Box6

2Outside Box1

Passing

71%Possession29%

768Total Passes318

687Accurate Passes228

89%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls5

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides3