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Manchester City vs Burnley — Premier League 2026

Manchester City
Manchester City
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Burnley
Burnley
L. Sané 90'
R. Mahrez 83'
Fernandinho 56'
Bernardo Silva 54'
S. Agüero 17'
10/20/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Manchester City66%
×Draw20%
Burnley14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester City
2.10
Burnley
0.86

Manchester City creates 144% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 21 away

creates per match

Manchester City
2.11
Burnley
0.79

allows per match

Manchester City
0.94
Burnley
2.10

finishing

Manchester City+0.32scores more
Burnley+0.40scores more

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Burnley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw
86%
Manchester City or Burnley
80%
Draw or Burnley
34%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+
41%
Burnley wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals
88%
Manchester City 2+ goals
62%
Manchester City 3+ goals
35%
Burnley 1+ goals
58%
Burnley 2+ goals
21%
Burnley 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)
82%
Burnley (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.94 · 37 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.11 + Burnley defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.10

Burnley attack 0.79 + Manchester City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Manchester City scores more
66%
level
20%
Burnley scores more
14%

Manchester City at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
R. MahrezManchester CityManchester City · F
9.2

Match Events

1'
Vincent Kompany
11'
Jack Cork
17'
S. Agüero↳ David Silva
32'
Jeff Hendrick
54'
Bernardo Silva↳ David Silva
56'
Fernandinho
58'
K. De Bruyne← Bernardo Silva
66'
Gabriel Jesus← S. Agüero
69'
C. Wood← S. Vokes
69'
A. Westwood← A. Lennon
75'
P. Foden← David Silva
75'
A. Barnes← S. Defour
81'
Leroy Sané
83'
R. Mahrez↳ Fernandinho
90'
L. Sané↳ B. Mendy

Possession

69%Manchester

Shots

24Manchester

Pass accuracy

54%Manchester

Statistics

ManchesterBurnley
Overview
69%Possession31%
24Total Shots5
10Corners1
11Fouls5
Shots
24Total Shots5
10On Target0
6Off Target4
8Blocked1
18Inside Box4
6Outside Box1
Passing
69%Possession31%
679Total Passes302
597Accurate Passes226
88%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls5
2Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: Manchester City vs Burnley

Manchester City beat Burnley 5-0 in Premier League on October 20, 2018.

Goals: S. Agüero (17'), Bernardo Silva (54'), Fernandinho (56'), R. Mahrez (83'), L. Sané (90').

Manchester City controlled possession (69%) and registered 24 shots to 5.

The match was played at Etihad Stadium in Manchester.