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Manchego vs Hogar Alcarreño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Manchego
Manchego
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Hogar Alcarreño
Hogar Alcarreño
4/10/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 32Polideportivo Juan Carlos I

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Manchego77%
×Draw15%
Hogar Alcarreño8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchego
2.52
Hogar Alcarreño
0.66

Manchego creates 282% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 17 away

creates per match

Manchego
1.56
Hogar Alcarreño
0.65

allows per match

Manchego
0.67
Hogar Alcarreño
3.47

finishing

Manchego+0.00on par
Hogar Alcarreño+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchego ↓

Hogar Alcarreño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Manchego or draw
92%
Manchego or Hogar Alcarreño
85%
Draw or Hogar Alcarreño
23%

Winning margin

Manchego wins by 2+
55%
Hogar Alcarreño wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Manchego 1+ goals
92%
Manchego 2+ goals
71%
Manchego 3+ goals
45%
Hogar Alcarreño 1+ goals
48%
Hogar Alcarreño 2+ goals
14%
Hogar Alcarreño 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Manchego (draw refunded)
91%
Hogar Alcarreño (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchego at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.67 · 95 matches

Hogar Alcarreño away — creates 0.65, concedes 3.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchego attack 1.56 + Hogar Alcarreño defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.52

Hogar Alcarreño attack 0.65 + Manchego defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Manchego scores more
77%
level
15%
Hogar Alcarreño scores more
8%

Manchego at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Manchego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manchego vs Hogar Alcarreño

Manchego beat Hogar Alcarreño 6-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Polideportivo Juan Carlos I in Ciudad Real.