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Hogar Alcarreño vs Manchego — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Hogar Alcarreño
Hogar Alcarreño
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Manchego
Manchego
12/8/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 15Estadio Municipal Fuente De La Niña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Hogar Alcarreño24%
×Draw26%
Manchego49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hogar Alcarreño
0.97
Manchego
1.50

Manchego creates 55% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 94 away

creates per match

Hogar Alcarreño
0.94
Manchego
1.05

allows per match

Hogar Alcarreño
1.94
Manchego
1.01

finishing

Hogar Alcarreño+0.00on par
Manchego+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hogar Alcarreño ↓

Manchego →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hogar Alcarreño or draw
51%
Hogar Alcarreño or Manchego
74%
Draw or Manchego
76%

Winning margin

Hogar Alcarreño wins by 2+
9%
Manchego wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Hogar Alcarreño 1+ goals
62%
Hogar Alcarreño 2+ goals
25%
Hogar Alcarreño 3+ goals
7%
Manchego 1+ goals
78%
Manchego 2+ goals
44%
Manchego 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Hogar Alcarreño (draw refunded)
33%
Manchego (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hogar Alcarreño at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

Manchego away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.01 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hogar Alcarreño attack 0.94 + Manchego defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Manchego attack 1.05 + Hogar Alcarreño defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hogar Alcarreño scores more
24%
level
26%
Manchego scores more
49%

Manchego at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Manchego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hogar Alcarreño 1 – 0 Manchego

Hogar Alcarreño beat Manchego 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on December 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Fuente De La Niña in Guadalajara.