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Mancha Real vs Juventud Torremolinos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Mancha Real
Mancha Real
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
9/17/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 2Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mancha Real34%
×Draw28%
Juventud Torremolinos38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mancha Real
1.16
Juventud Torremolinos
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 45 away

creates per match

Mancha Real
1.50
Juventud Torremolinos
1.53

allows per match

Mancha Real
0.95
Juventud Torremolinos
0.82

finishing

Mancha Real+0.00on par
Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mancha Real ↓

Juventud Torremolinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mancha Real or draw
62%
Mancha Real or Juventud Torremolinos
72%
Draw or Juventud Torremolinos
66%

Winning margin

Mancha Real wins by 2+
14%
Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Mancha Real 1+ goals
69%
Mancha Real 2+ goals
32%
Mancha Real 3+ goals
11%
Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
71%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
35%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mancha Real (draw refunded)
47%
Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mancha Real at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Juventud Torremolinos away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mancha Real attack 1.50 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.16

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.53 + Mancha Real defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mancha Real scores more
34%
level
28%
Juventud Torremolinos scores more
38%

Juventud Torremolinos at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Juventud Torremolinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mancha Real 0 – 3 Juventud Torremolinos

Juventud Torremolinos beat Mancha Real 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud in Mancha Real.