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Juventud Torremolinos vs Mancha Real — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mancha Real
Mancha Real
1/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 19Campo Municipal El Pozuelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Juventud Torremolinos54%
×Draw28%
Mancha Real19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud Torremolinos
1.40
Mancha Real
0.70

Juventud Torremolinos creates 100% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 79 away

creates per match

Juventud Torremolinos
1.64
Mancha Real
0.73

allows per match

Juventud Torremolinos
0.67
Mancha Real
1.16

finishing

Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par
Mancha Real+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Torremolinos ↓

Mancha Real →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Juventud Torremolinos or draw
81%
Juventud Torremolinos or Mancha Real
72%
Draw or Mancha Real
46%

Winning margin

Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
27%
Mancha Real wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
75%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
41%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
17%
Mancha Real 1+ goals
50%
Mancha Real 2+ goals
16%
Mancha Real 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
74%
Mancha Real (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Torremolinos at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.67 · 45 matches

Mancha Real away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.64 + Mancha Real defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.40

Mancha Real attack 0.73 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Juventud Torremolinos scores more
54%
level
28%
Mancha Real scores more
19%

Juventud Torremolinos at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Juventud Torremolinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Juventud Torremolinos 3 – 0 Mancha Real

Juventud Torremolinos beat Mancha Real 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal El Pozuelo in Torremolinos.