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Mancha Real vs Huétor Tájar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Mancha Real
Mancha Real
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Huétor Tájar
Huétor Tájar
3/30/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 28Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Mancha Real48%
×Draw26%
Huétor Tájar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mancha Real
1.48
Huétor Tájar
1.03

Mancha Real creates 44% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 109 away

creates per match

Mancha Real
1.50
Huétor Tájar
1.11

allows per match

Mancha Real
0.95
Huétor Tájar
1.45

finishing

Mancha Real+0.00on par
Huétor Tájar+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mancha Real ↓

Huétor Tájar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mancha Real or draw
74%
Mancha Real or Huétor Tájar
74%
Draw or Huétor Tájar
52%

Winning margin

Mancha Real wins by 2+
24%
Huétor Tájar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mancha Real 1+ goals
77%
Mancha Real 2+ goals
43%
Mancha Real 3+ goals
19%
Huétor Tájar 1+ goals
64%
Huétor Tájar 2+ goals
28%
Huétor Tájar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mancha Real (draw refunded)
64%
Huétor Tájar (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mancha Real at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Huétor Tájar away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.45 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mancha Real attack 1.50 + Huétor Tájar defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

Huétor Tájar attack 1.11 + Mancha Real defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mancha Real scores more
48%
level
26%
Huétor Tájar scores more
26%

Mancha Real at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mancha Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mancha Real vs Huétor Tájar

Mancha Real beat Huétor Tájar 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud in Mancha Real.