Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Huétor Tájar vs Mancha Real — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Huétor Tájar
Huétor Tájar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mancha Real
Mancha Real
4/11/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 30Estadio Municipal Miguel Moranto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Huétor Tájar47%
×Draw28%
Mancha Real25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huétor Tájar
1.32
Mancha Real
0.87

Huétor Tájar creates 52% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 79 away

creates per match

Huétor Tájar
1.49
Mancha Real
0.73

allows per match

Huétor Tájar
1.01
Mancha Real
1.16

finishing

Huétor Tájar+0.00on par
Mancha Real+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huétor Tájar ↓

Mancha Real →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Huétor Tájar or draw
75%
Huétor Tájar or Mancha Real
72%
Draw or Mancha Real
53%

Winning margin

Huétor Tájar wins by 2+
22%
Mancha Real wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Huétor Tájar 1+ goals
73%
Huétor Tájar 2+ goals
38%
Huétor Tájar 3+ goals
15%
Mancha Real 1+ goals
58%
Mancha Real 2+ goals
22%
Mancha Real 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Huétor Tájar (draw refunded)
66%
Mancha Real (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huétor Tájar at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.01 · 110 matches

Mancha Real away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huétor Tájar attack 1.49 + Mancha Real defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.32

Mancha Real attack 0.73 + Huétor Tájar defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Huétor Tájar scores more
47%
level
28%
Mancha Real scores more
25%

Huétor Tájar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Huétor Tájar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Huétor Tájar 2 – 1 Mancha Real

Huétor Tájar beat Mancha Real 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 11, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Miguel Moranto in Huétor Tájar.