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Mancha Real vs Atlético Melilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Mancha Real
Mancha Real
FT
9 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
Atlético Melilla
Atlético Melilla
4/21/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 30Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mancha Real81%
×Draw13%
Atlético Melilla7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mancha Real
2.84
Atlético Melilla
0.71

Mancha Real creates 300% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 17 away

creates per match

Mancha Real
1.50
Atlético Melilla
0.47

allows per match

Mancha Real
0.95
Atlético Melilla
4.18

finishing

Mancha Real+0.00on par
Atlético Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mancha Real ↓

Atlético Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Mancha Real or draw
93%
Mancha Real or Atlético Melilla
87%
Draw or Atlético Melilla
19%

Winning margin

Mancha Real wins by 2+
60%
Atlético Melilla wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Mancha Real 1+ goals
94%
Mancha Real 2+ goals
77%
Mancha Real 3+ goals
53%
Atlético Melilla 1+ goals
51%
Atlético Melilla 2+ goals
16%
Atlético Melilla 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mancha Real (draw refunded)
92%
Atlético Melilla (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mancha Real at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Atlético Melilla away — creates 0.47, concedes 4.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mancha Real attack 1.50 + Atlético Melilla defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 2.84

Atlético Melilla attack 0.47 + Mancha Real defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Mancha Real scores more
81%
level
13%
Atlético Melilla scores more
7%

Mancha Real at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Mancha Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mancha Real 9 – 0 Atlético Melilla

Mancha Real beat Atlético Melilla 9-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud in Mancha Real.