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Atlético Melilla vs Mancha Real — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Atlético Melilla
Atlético Melilla
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mancha Real
Mancha Real
12/3/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 13Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atlético Melilla27%
×Draw29%
Mancha Real44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Melilla
0.88
Mancha Real
1.22

Mancha Real creates 39% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 79 away

creates per match

Atlético Melilla
0.59
Mancha Real
0.73

allows per match

Atlético Melilla
1.71
Mancha Real
1.16

finishing

Atlético Melilla+0.00on par
Mancha Real+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Melilla ↓

Mancha Real →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Atlético Melilla or draw
56%
Atlético Melilla or Mancha Real
71%
Draw or Mancha Real
73%

Winning margin

Atlético Melilla wins by 2+
9%
Mancha Real wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Atlético Melilla 1+ goals
59%
Atlético Melilla 2+ goals
22%
Atlético Melilla 3+ goals
6%
Mancha Real 1+ goals
70%
Mancha Real 2+ goals
34%
Mancha Real 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Atlético Melilla (draw refunded)
38%
Mancha Real (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Melilla at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Mancha Real away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Melilla attack 0.59 + Mancha Real defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.88

Mancha Real attack 0.73 + Atlético Melilla defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atlético Melilla scores more
27%
level
29%
Mancha Real scores more
44%

Mancha Real at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mancha Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Melilla 1 – 1 Mancha Real

Atlético Melilla and Mancha Real drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Espiguera in Melilla.