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Mancha Real vs Arenas Armilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Mancha Real
Mancha Real
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Arenas Armilla
Arenas Armilla
9/29/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 4Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Mancha Real46%
×Draw28%
Arenas Armilla26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mancha Real
1.33
Arenas Armilla
0.94

Mancha Real creates 41% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 68 away

creates per match

Mancha Real
1.50
Arenas Armilla
0.94

allows per match

Mancha Real
0.95
Arenas Armilla
1.16

finishing

Mancha Real+0.00on par
Arenas Armilla+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mancha Real ↓

Arenas Armilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mancha Real or draw
74%
Mancha Real or Arenas Armilla
72%
Draw or Arenas Armilla
54%

Winning margin

Mancha Real wins by 2+
21%
Arenas Armilla wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mancha Real 1+ goals
74%
Mancha Real 2+ goals
38%
Mancha Real 3+ goals
15%
Arenas Armilla 1+ goals
61%
Arenas Armilla 2+ goals
24%
Arenas Armilla 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mancha Real (draw refunded)
63%
Arenas Armilla (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mancha Real at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Arenas Armilla away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mancha Real attack 1.50 + Arenas Armilla defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.33

Arenas Armilla attack 0.94 + Mancha Real defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mancha Real scores more
46%
level
28%
Arenas Armilla scores more
26%

Mancha Real at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mancha Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Mancha Real 1–2 Arenas Armilla

Arenas Armilla beat Mancha Real 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud in Mancha Real.