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Arenas Armilla vs Mancha Real — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Arenas Armilla
Arenas Armilla
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mancha Real
Mancha Real
10/18/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 7Estadio Nuevo Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Arenas Armilla43%
×Draw29%
Mancha Real28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenas Armilla
1.23
Mancha Real
0.92

Arenas Armilla creates 34% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 79 away

creates per match

Arenas Armilla
1.29
Mancha Real
0.73

allows per match

Arenas Armilla
1.10
Mancha Real
1.16

finishing

Arenas Armilla+0.00on par
Mancha Real+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Armilla ↓

Mancha Real →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Arenas Armilla or draw
72%
Arenas Armilla or Mancha Real
71%
Draw or Mancha Real
57%

Winning margin

Arenas Armilla wins by 2+
19%
Mancha Real wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Arenas Armilla 1+ goals
71%
Arenas Armilla 2+ goals
35%
Arenas Armilla 3+ goals
13%
Mancha Real 1+ goals
60%
Mancha Real 2+ goals
23%
Mancha Real 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Arenas Armilla (draw refunded)
61%
Mancha Real (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenas Armilla at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

Mancha Real away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Armilla attack 1.29 + Mancha Real defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Mancha Real attack 0.73 + Arenas Armilla defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Arenas Armilla scores more
43%
level
29%
Mancha Real scores more
28%

Arenas Armilla at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arenas Armilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arenas Armilla 0 – 0 Mancha Real

Arenas Armilla and Mancha Real drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal in Armilla.