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Mancha Real vs Almería II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Mancha Real
Mancha Real
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Almería II
Almería II
5/5/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 33Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Mancha Real41%
×Draw26%
Almería II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mancha Real
1.40
Almería II
1.23

Mancha Real creates 14% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 75 away

creates per match

Mancha Real
1.50
Almería II
1.51

allows per match

Mancha Real
0.95
Almería II
1.29

finishing

Mancha Real+0.00on par
Almería II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mancha Real ↓

Almería II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mancha Real or draw
67%
Mancha Real or Almería II
74%
Draw or Almería II
59%

Winning margin

Mancha Real wins by 2+
19%
Almería II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mancha Real 1+ goals
75%
Mancha Real 2+ goals
41%
Mancha Real 3+ goals
17%
Almería II 1+ goals
71%
Almería II 2+ goals
35%
Almería II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mancha Real (draw refunded)
55%
Almería II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mancha Real at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Almería II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.29 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mancha Real attack 1.50 + Almería II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

Almería II attack 1.51 + Mancha Real defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mancha Real scores more
41%
level
26%
Almería II scores more
33%

Mancha Real at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mancha Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mancha Real vs Almería II

Mancha Real and Almería II drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud in Mancha Real.