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Almería II vs Mancha Real — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Almería II
Almería II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mancha Real
Mancha Real
10/18/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 1Anexo Estadio de los Juegos del Mediterráneo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Almería II59%
×Draw25%
Mancha Real16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almería II
1.63
Mancha Real
0.72

Almería II creates 126% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 79 away

creates per match

Almería II
2.09
Mancha Real
0.73

allows per match

Almería II
0.72
Mancha Real
1.16

finishing

Almería II+0.00on par
Mancha Real+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almería II ↓

Mancha Real →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Almería II or draw
84%
Almería II or Mancha Real
75%
Draw or Mancha Real
41%

Winning margin

Almería II wins by 2+
32%
Mancha Real wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Almería II 1+ goals
80%
Almería II 2+ goals
48%
Almería II 3+ goals
22%
Mancha Real 1+ goals
51%
Mancha Real 2+ goals
16%
Mancha Real 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Almería II (draw refunded)
78%
Mancha Real (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almería II at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.72 · 76 matches

Mancha Real away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almería II attack 2.09 + Mancha Real defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.63

Mancha Real attack 0.73 + Almería II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Almería II scores more
59%
level
25%
Mancha Real scores more
16%

Almería II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Almería II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Almería II 0 – 0 Mancha Real

Almería II and Mancha Real drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Anexo Estadio de los Juegos del Mediterráneo in Almería.