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Mancha Real vs Alhaurín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Mancha Real
Mancha Real
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Alhaurín
Alhaurín
9/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 2Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Mancha Real58%
×Draw23%
Alhaurín19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mancha Real
1.85
Alhaurín
0.96

Mancha Real creates 93% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 43 away

creates per match

Mancha Real
1.50
Alhaurín
0.98

allows per match

Mancha Real
0.95
Alhaurín
2.21

finishing

Mancha Real+0.00on par
Alhaurín+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mancha Real ↓

Alhaurín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mancha Real or draw
81%
Mancha Real or Alhaurín
77%
Draw or Alhaurín
42%

Winning margin

Mancha Real wins by 2+
34%
Alhaurín wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mancha Real 1+ goals
84%
Mancha Real 2+ goals
55%
Mancha Real 3+ goals
28%
Alhaurín 1+ goals
62%
Alhaurín 2+ goals
25%
Alhaurín 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mancha Real (draw refunded)
75%
Alhaurín (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mancha Real at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Alhaurín away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.21 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mancha Real attack 1.50 + Alhaurín defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.85

Alhaurín attack 0.98 + Mancha Real defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Mancha Real scores more
58%
level
23%
Alhaurín scores more
19%

Mancha Real at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Mancha Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mancha Real vs Alhaurín

Alhaurín beat Mancha Real 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud in Mancha Real.