Alhaurín 1–1 Mancha Real: Result & Stats

Alhaurín

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mancha Real

Fran Montero 47'

Urko Arroyo 90+2'

1/19/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 21Estadio Municipal Los Manantiales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Alhaurín36%

×Draw30%

Mancha Real34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlhaurínExpected goals in this matchMancha Real

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.05

Alhaurín

1.08

Mancha Real

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 79 away

1.00

creates per match

0.73

1.38

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Alhaurín

1.00

Mancha Real

0.73

allows per match

Alhaurín

1.38

Mancha Real

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alhaurín+0.00on par

Mancha Real+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alhaurín ↓

Mancha Real →

0–012%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Alhaurín or draw

66%

Alhaurín or Mancha Real

70%

Draw or Mancha Real

64%

Winning margin

Alhaurín wins by 2+

14%

Mancha Real wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Alhaurín 1+ goals

66%

Alhaurín 2+ goals

29%

Alhaurín 3+ goals

10%

Mancha Real 1+ goals

65%

Mancha Real 2+ goals

28%

Mancha Real 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Alhaurín (draw refunded)

51%

Mancha Real (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alhaurín at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 42 matches

Mancha Real away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alhaurín attack 1.00 + Mancha Real defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Mancha Real attack 0.73 + Alhaurín defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Alhaurín scores more

36%

level

30%

Mancha Real scores more

34%

Alhaurín at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Alhaurín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

Fran Montero← Darío

47'

Fran Montero

57'

Mario Ordoñez← Juanfran

65'

Alex Rodriguez← Ito

72'

Álvaro← Pirulo

72'

P. Etamané← David Romero

90+2'

Urko Arroyo

Alhaurín

Mancha

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Nene Montero

40'▲Fran Montero←▼Darío

65'▲Alex Rodriguez←▼Ito

72'▲Álvaro←▼Pirulo

Alhaurín substitutes

MonteroRodriguezÁlvaro

Manager: Pedro Bolaños

57'▲Mario Ordoñez←▼Juanfran

72'▲P. Etamané←▼David Romero

Mancha Real substitutes

OrdoñezEtamané