Manaus FC 4–0 Humaitá: Result & Stats | Serie D

Manaus FC

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Humaitá

Wanderson 88'

Renanzinho 75' (pen)

G. dos Santos Saavedra 54'

Adriano Jr 43'

4/26/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 2Arena da Amazonia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Manaus FC73%

×Draw16%

Humaitá11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manaus FCExpected goals in this matchHumaitá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

0.86

Manaus FC

2.50

Humaitá

0.86

Manaus FC creates 191% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

1.78

creates per match

0.73

1.00

allows per match

3.21

creates per match

Manaus FC

1.78

Humaitá

0.73

allows per match

Manaus FC

1.00

Humaitá

3.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manaus FC+0.00on par

Humaitá+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manaus FC ↓

Humaitá →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Manaus FC or draw

89%

Manaus FC or Humaitá

84%

Draw or Humaitá

27%

Winning margin

Manaus FC wins by 2+

50%

Humaitá wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Manaus FC 1+ goals

92%

Manaus FC 2+ goals

71%

Manaus FC 3+ goals

45%

Humaitá 1+ goals

58%

Humaitá 2+ goals

21%

Humaitá 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Manaus FC (draw refunded)

87%

Humaitá (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manaus FC at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.00 · 32 matches

Humaitá away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.21 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manaus FC attack 1.78 + Humaitá defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.50

Humaitá attack 0.73 + Manaus FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Manaus FC scores more

73%

level

16%

Humaitá scores more

11%

Manaus FC at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Manaus FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

Adriano Jr

54'

G. dos Santos Saavedra

75'

RenanzinhoPenalty

88'

Wanderson

Manaus

Humaitá

⚽

⚽

Manager: Renatinho Potiguar

Manaus FC substitutes

WandersonCássioMassonSpiceSilvanoGustavoHilaDedéLeloEliasRoneyAugusto

Manager: Erismeu

Humaitá substitutes

GustavoHenriqueJulianoYoossefJulioBorgesSayukVinicius

Serie D: Manaus FC 4–0 Humaitá

Manaus FC beat Humaitá 4-0 in Serie D on April 26, 2025.

Goals: Adriano Jr (43'), G. dos Santos Saavedra (54'), Renanzinho (75' pen), Wanderson (88').

The match was played at Arena da Amazonia in Manaus.

Manaus FC vs Humaitá — Serie D 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie D: Manaus FC 4–0 Humaitá