Humaitá 1–2 Manaus FC: Result & Stats | Serie D

Humaitá

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Manaus FC

Vinicius Evangelista 69'

Ale Junior 14'

Diogo Carlos 53'

Roney 6'

7/20/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 13Arena Acreana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Humaitá23%

×Draw23%

Manaus FC54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HumaitáExpected goals in this matchManaus FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.82

Humaitá

1.10

Manaus FC

1.82

Manaus FC creates 65% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 34 away

0.79

creates per match

1.29

2.36

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Humaitá

0.79

Manaus FC

1.29

allows per match

Humaitá

2.36

Manaus FC

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Humaitá+0.00on par

Manaus FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humaitá ↓

Manaus FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Humaitá or draw

46%

Humaitá or Manaus FC

77%

Draw or Manaus FC

77%

Winning margin

Humaitá wins by 2+

9%

Manaus FC wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Humaitá 1+ goals

67%

Humaitá 2+ goals

30%

Humaitá 3+ goals

10%

Manaus FC 1+ goals

84%

Manaus FC 2+ goals

54%

Manaus FC 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Humaitá (draw refunded)

30%

Manaus FC (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humaitá at home — creates 0.79, concedes 2.36 · 33 matches

Manaus FC away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humaitá attack 0.79 + Manaus FC defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.10

Manaus FC attack 1.29 + Humaitá defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Humaitá scores more

23%

level

23%

Manaus FC scores more

54%

Manaus FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Manaus FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Roney

14'

Ale Junior

53'

Diogo Carlos

69'

Vinicius Evangelista

69'

Vinicius Evangelista

Humaitá

Manaus

Manager: Erismeu

Manager: Renatinho Potiguar