Manaus FC 1–1 Amazonas: Result & Stats

Manaus FC

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Amazonas

4/14/2024

League #522 · Championship - FinalEstádio Roberto Simonsen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Manaus FC30%

×Draw25%

Amazonas45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manaus FCExpected goals in this matchAmazonas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.57

Manaus FC

1.23

Amazonas

1.57

Amazonas creates 28% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.60

creates per match

2.14

1.00

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Manaus FC

1.60

Amazonas

2.14

allows per match

Manaus FC

1.00

Amazonas

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manaus FC+0.00on par

Amazonas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manaus FC ↓

Amazonas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Manaus FC or draw

55%

Manaus FC or Amazonas

75%

Draw or Amazonas

70%

Winning margin

Manaus FC wins by 2+

12%

Amazonas wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Manaus FC 1+ goals

71%

Manaus FC 2+ goals

35%

Manaus FC 3+ goals

13%

Amazonas 1+ goals

79%

Amazonas 2+ goals

46%

Amazonas 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Manaus FC (draw refunded)

40%

Amazonas (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manaus FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Amazonas away — creates 2.14, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manaus FC attack 1.60 + Amazonas defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.23

Amazonas attack 2.14 + Manaus FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Manaus FC scores more

30%

level

25%

Amazonas scores more

45%

Amazonas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Amazonas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff