Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Amazonas vs Manaus FC — League #522 2026

Amazonas
Amazonas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Manaus FC
Manaus FC
1/23/2026League #522League #522 · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Amazonas19%
×Draw22%
Manaus FC59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amazonas
1.01
Manaus FC
1.93

Manaus FC creates 91% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Amazonas
1.17
Manaus FC
1.86

allows per match

Amazonas
2.00
Manaus FC
0.86

finishing

Amazonas+0.00on par
Manaus FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amazonas ↓

Manaus FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Amazonas or draw
41%
Amazonas or Manaus FC
78%
Draw or Manaus FC
81%

Winning margin

Amazonas wins by 2+
7%
Manaus FC wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Amazonas 1+ goals
64%
Amazonas 2+ goals
27%
Amazonas 3+ goals
8%
Manaus FC 1+ goals
85%
Manaus FC 2+ goals
57%
Manaus FC 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Amazonas (draw refunded)
25%
Manaus FC (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amazonas at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Manaus FC away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amazonas attack 1.17 + Manaus FC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.01

Manaus FC attack 1.86 + Amazonas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Amazonas scores more
19%
level
22%
Manaus FC scores more
59%

Manaus FC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Manaus FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #522: Amazonas 2–1 Manaus FC

Amazonas beat Manaus FC 2-1 in League #522 on January 23, 2026.