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Manang Marshyangdi vs Chennaiyin — AFC Cup 2018

Manang Marshyangdi
Manang Marshyangdi
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Chennaiyin
Chennaiyin
6/26/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 6ANFA Complex Satdobato (Kathmandu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Manang Marshyangdi30%
×Draw25%
Chennaiyin45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manang Marshyangdi
1.25
Chennaiyin
1.58

Chennaiyin creates 26% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Manang Marshyangdi
1.00
Chennaiyin
1.50

allows per match

Manang Marshyangdi
1.67
Chennaiyin
1.50

finishing

Manang Marshyangdi+0.00on par
Chennaiyin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manang Marshyangdi ↓

Chennaiyin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Manang Marshyangdi or draw
55%
Manang Marshyangdi or Chennaiyin
75%
Draw or Chennaiyin
70%

Winning margin

Manang Marshyangdi wins by 2+
13%
Chennaiyin wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Manang Marshyangdi 1+ goals
71%
Manang Marshyangdi 2+ goals
36%
Manang Marshyangdi 3+ goals
13%
Chennaiyin 1+ goals
79%
Chennaiyin 2+ goals
47%
Chennaiyin 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Manang Marshyangdi (draw refunded)
40%
Chennaiyin (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manang Marshyangdi at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Chennaiyin away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manang Marshyangdi attack 1.00 + Chennaiyin defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Chennaiyin attack 1.50 + Manang Marshyangdi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Manang Marshyangdi scores more
30%
level
25%
Chennaiyin scores more
45%

Chennaiyin at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chennaiyin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manang Marshyangdi vs Chennaiyin

Chennaiyin beat Manang Marshyangdi 3-2 in AFC Cup on June 26, 2019.

The match was played at ANFA Complex Satdobato (Kathmandu).