Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chennaiyin vs Manang Marshyangdi — AFC Cup 2018

Chennaiyin
Chennaiyin
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Manang Marshyangdi
Manang Marshyangdi
4/17/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 2The Arena by TransStadia (Ahmedabad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chennaiyin77%
×Draw17%
Manang Marshyangdi5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chennaiyin
2.00
Manang Marshyangdi
0.34

Chennaiyin creates 488% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Chennaiyin
1.00
Manang Marshyangdi
0.67

allows per match

Chennaiyin
0.00
Manang Marshyangdi
3.00

finishing

Chennaiyin+0.00on par
Manang Marshyangdi+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

75%No
  • No75
  • Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chennaiyin ↓

Manang Marshyangdi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–17%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–019%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chennaiyin or draw
95%
Chennaiyin or Manang Marshyangdi
83%
Draw or Manang Marshyangdi
23%

Winning margin

Chennaiyin wins by 2+
50%
Manang Marshyangdi wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Chennaiyin 1+ goals
86%
Chennaiyin 2+ goals
59%
Chennaiyin 3+ goals
32%
Manang Marshyangdi 1+ goals
29%
Manang Marshyangdi 2+ goals
5%
Manang Marshyangdi 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Chennaiyin (draw refunded)
94%
Manang Marshyangdi (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chennaiyin at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.00 · 4 matches

Manang Marshyangdi away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chennaiyin attack 1.00 + Manang Marshyangdi defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Manang Marshyangdi attack 0.67 + Chennaiyin defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Chennaiyin scores more
77%
level
17%
Manang Marshyangdi scores more
5%

Chennaiyin at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Chennaiyin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Chennaiyin 2–0 Manang Marshyangdi

Chennaiyin beat Manang Marshyangdi 2-0 in AFC Cup on April 17, 2019.

The match was played at The Arena by TransStadia (Ahmedabad).