Manang Marshyangdi 0–1 Abahani: Result & Stats

Manang Marshyangdi

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Abahani

4/3/2019

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 1ANFA Complex Satdobato (Kathmandu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Manang Marshyangdi37%

×Draw27%

Abahani36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manang MarshyangdiExpected goals in this matchAbahani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.23

Manang Marshyangdi

1.25

Abahani

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

1.00

creates per match

0.80

1.67

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Manang Marshyangdi

1.00

Abahani

0.80

allows per match

Manang Marshyangdi

1.67

Abahani

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manang Marshyangdi+0.00on par

Abahani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manang Marshyangdi ↓

Abahani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Manang Marshyangdi or draw

64%

Manang Marshyangdi or Abahani

73%

Draw or Abahani

63%

Winning margin

Manang Marshyangdi wins by 2+

16%

Abahani wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Manang Marshyangdi 1+ goals

71%

Manang Marshyangdi 2+ goals

36%

Manang Marshyangdi 3+ goals

13%

Abahani 1+ goals

71%

Abahani 2+ goals

35%

Abahani 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Manang Marshyangdi (draw refunded)

51%

Abahani (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manang Marshyangdi at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Abahani away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manang Marshyangdi attack 1.00 + Abahani defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Abahani attack 0.80 + Manang Marshyangdi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Manang Marshyangdi scores more

37%

level

27%

Abahani scores more

36%

Manang Marshyangdi at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Manang Marshyangdi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff