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Abahani vs Manang Marshyangdi — AFC Cup 2018

Abahani
Abahani
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Manang Marshyangdi
Manang Marshyangdi
6/19/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Bangabandhu National Stadium (Dhaka)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Abahani65%
×Draw18%
Manang Marshyangdi17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abahani
2.55
Manang Marshyangdi
1.23

Abahani creates 107% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Abahani
2.11
Manang Marshyangdi
0.67

allows per match

Abahani
1.78
Manang Marshyangdi
3.00

finishing

Abahani+0.00on par
Manang Marshyangdi+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abahani ↓

Manang Marshyangdi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Abahani or draw
83%
Abahani or Manang Marshyangdi
82%
Draw or Manang Marshyangdi
35%

Winning margin

Abahani wins by 2+
44%
Manang Marshyangdi wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Abahani 1+ goals
92%
Abahani 2+ goals
72%
Abahani 3+ goals
46%
Manang Marshyangdi 1+ goals
71%
Manang Marshyangdi 2+ goals
35%
Manang Marshyangdi 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Abahani (draw refunded)
80%
Manang Marshyangdi (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abahani at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Manang Marshyangdi away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abahani attack 2.11 + Manang Marshyangdi defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.55

Manang Marshyangdi attack 0.67 + Abahani defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Abahani scores more
65%
level
18%
Manang Marshyangdi scores more
17%

Abahani at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Abahani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Abahani 5–0 Manang Marshyangdi

Abahani beat Manang Marshyangdi 5-0 in AFC Cup on June 19, 2019.

The match was played at Bangabandhu National Stadium (Dhaka).