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Manama vs Al Najma — Premier League 2019

Manama
Manama
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Al Najma
Al Najma
12/19/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Madinat 'Isa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Manama44%
×Draw27%
Al Najma29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manama
1.39
Al Najma
1.06

Manama creates 31% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 63 away

creates per match

Manama
1.28
Al Najma
1.10

allows per match

Manama
1.03
Al Najma
1.49

finishing

Manama+0.00on par
Al Najma+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manama ↓

Al Najma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Manama or draw
71%
Manama or Al Najma
73%
Draw or Al Najma
56%

Winning margin

Manama wins by 2+
21%
Al Najma wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Manama 1+ goals
75%
Manama 2+ goals
40%
Manama 3+ goals
16%
Al Najma 1+ goals
65%
Al Najma 2+ goals
29%
Al Najma 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Manama (draw refunded)
61%
Al Najma (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manama at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.03 · 61 matches

Al Najma away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.49 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manama attack 1.28 + Al Najma defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.39

Al Najma attack 1.10 + Manama defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Manama scores more
44%
level
27%
Al Najma scores more
29%

Manama at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Manama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manama vs Al Najma

Manama beat Al Najma 3-2 in Premier League on December 19, 2023.

The match was played at Madinat 'Isa Stadium in Manama.