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Al Najma vs Manama — Premier League 2019

Al Najma
Al Najma
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Manama
Manama
Juninho Piauiense 28'
Ahmed Moosa Ali 78'
F. Tobares 55'
Omar Duaij 53'
Thiaguinho 18'
5/9/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Stād al-Bahrayn al-Watanī

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Al Najma35%
×Draw25%
Manama40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Najma
1.35
Manama
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 62 away

creates per match

Al Najma
1.40
Manama
1.32

allows per match

Al Najma
1.60
Manama
1.31

finishing

Al Najma+0.00on par
Manama+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Najma ↓

Manama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Al Najma or draw
60%
Al Najma or Manama
75%
Draw or Manama
65%

Winning margin

Al Najma wins by 2+
16%
Manama wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Al Najma 1+ goals
74%
Al Najma 2+ goals
39%
Al Najma 3+ goals
15%
Manama 1+ goals
77%
Manama 2+ goals
43%
Manama 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Al Najma (draw refunded)
47%
Manama (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Najma at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 62 matches

Manama away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.31 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Najma attack 1.40 + Manama defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.35

Manama attack 1.32 + Al Najma defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Najma scores more
35%
level
25%
Manama scores more
40%

Manama at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Manama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
Thiaguinho
28'
Juninho Piauiense
53'
Omar Duaij
55'
F. Tobares
78'
Ahmed Moosa Ali
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Najma 1–4 Manama

Manama beat Al Najma 4-1 in Premier League on May 9, 2024.

Goals: Thiaguinho (18'), Juninho Piauiense (28'), Omar Duaij (53'), F. Tobares (55'), Ahmed Moosa Ali (78').

The match was played at Stād al-Bahrayn al-Watanī in Riffa.