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Managua vs Deportivo Las Sabanas — Primera Division 2019

Managua
Managua
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Las Sabanas
Deportivo Las Sabanas
11/9/2019Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 16Estadio Nacional de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Managua63%
×Draw21%
Deportivo Las Sabanas16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Managua
2.00
Deportivo Las Sabanas
0.88

Managua creates 127% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 19 away

creates per match

Managua
2.04
Deportivo Las Sabanas
0.58

allows per match

Managua
1.17
Deportivo Las Sabanas
1.95

finishing

Managua+0.00on par
Deportivo Las Sabanas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Managua ↓

Deportivo Las Sabanas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Managua or draw
84%
Managua or Deportivo Las Sabanas
79%
Draw or Deportivo Las Sabanas
37%

Winning margin

Managua wins by 2+
39%
Deportivo Las Sabanas wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Managua 1+ goals
86%
Managua 2+ goals
59%
Managua 3+ goals
32%
Deportivo Las Sabanas 1+ goals
59%
Deportivo Las Sabanas 2+ goals
22%
Deportivo Las Sabanas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Managua (draw refunded)
80%
Deportivo Las Sabanas (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Managua at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.17 · 147 matches

Deportivo Las Sabanas away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Managua attack 2.04 + Deportivo Las Sabanas defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.00

Deportivo Las Sabanas attack 0.58 + Managua defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Managua scores more
63%
level
21%
Deportivo Las Sabanas scores more
16%

Managua at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Managua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Managua 4–0 Deportivo Las Sabanas

Managua beat Deportivo Las Sabanas 4-0 in Primera Division on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional de Fútbol in Managua.