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Deportivo Las Sabanas vs Managua — Primera Division 2019

Deportivo Las Sabanas
Deportivo Las Sabanas
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Managua
Managua
9/15/2019Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 7Estadio Solidaridad Augusto Cesar Mendoza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Deportivo Las Sabanas34%
×Draw30%
Managua36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Las Sabanas
1.05
Managua
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 139 away

creates per match

Deportivo Las Sabanas
0.94
Managua
1.28

allows per match

Deportivo Las Sabanas
0.89
Managua
1.17

finishing

Deportivo Las Sabanas+0.00on par
Managua+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Las Sabanas ↓

Managua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Las Sabanas or draw
64%
Deportivo Las Sabanas or Managua
70%
Draw or Managua
66%

Winning margin

Deportivo Las Sabanas wins by 2+
13%
Managua wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Deportivo Las Sabanas 1+ goals
65%
Deportivo Las Sabanas 2+ goals
28%
Deportivo Las Sabanas 3+ goals
9%
Managua 1+ goals
66%
Managua 2+ goals
29%
Managua 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Las Sabanas (draw refunded)
49%
Managua (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Las Sabanas at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Managua away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Las Sabanas attack 0.94 + Managua defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Managua attack 1.28 + Deportivo Las Sabanas defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Deportivo Las Sabanas scores more
34%
level
30%
Managua scores more
36%

Managua at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Managua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Deportivo Las Sabanas 4–1 Managua

Deportivo Las Sabanas beat Managua 4-1 in Primera Division on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Solidaridad Augusto Cesar Mendoza in Somoto.