Manacor 1–3 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas: Result & Stats

Manacor

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Sito Riera 81' (pen)

Felipao 87', 79'

Álex Sánchez 59'

2/10/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 20Poliesportiu Municipal Na Capellera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Manacor31%

×Draw25%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ManacorExpected goals in this matchIbiza Islas Pitiusas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.54

Manacor

1.27

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.54

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 21% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 44 away

1.96

creates per match

2.00

1.07

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

Manacor

1.96

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.00

allows per match

Manacor

1.07

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manacor+0.00on par

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manacor ↓

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas →

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Manacor or draw

56%

Manacor or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

75%

Draw or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

69%

Winning margin

Manacor wins by 2+

13%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Manacor 1+ goals

72%

Manacor 2+ goals

36%

Manacor 3+ goals

14%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

79%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

45%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Manacor (draw refunded)

42%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Manacor at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.07 · 115 matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.59 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Manacor attack 1.96 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.00 + Manacor defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Manacor scores more

31%

level

25%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

44%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

Álex Sánchez← Juanca Alarcón

59'

Álex Sánchez

65'

Juliá Maimo← R. Chakroun

65'

Diego Granados← Nico Rubio

76'

Dani Sales← Marquitos

76'

Felipao← Xesc Navalón

79'

Felipao

81'

Sito RieraPenalty

83'

Marcos Arriaza← Sergi Vecina

87'

Felipao

89'

Roberto Fernández← David Sánchez

89'

Pablo Cortijo← F. Núñez

90'

Miguel Llompart← Toni Florit

90'

Victor Barber← Junior Román

Manacor

Ibiza

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Jaume Mut

65'▲Juliá Maimo←▼R. Chakroun

65'▲Diego Granados←▼Nico Rubio

83'▲Marcos Arriaza←▼Sergi Vecina

90'▲Miguel Llompart←▼Toni Florit

90'▲Victor Barber←▼Junior Román

Manacor substitutes

MaimoGranadosArriazaLlompartBarber

Manager: Raúl Casañ

57'▲Álex Sánchez←▼Juanca Alarcón

76'▲Dani Sales←▼Marquitos

76'▲Felipao←▼Xesc Navalón

89'▲Roberto Fernández←▼David Sánchez

89'▲Pablo Cortijo←▼F. Núñez

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

SánchezSalesFelipaoFernándezCortijo

Match Recap: Manacor vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Manacor 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on February 10, 2024.

Goals: Álex Sánchez (59'), Felipao (79', 87'), Sito Riera (81' pen).

The match was played at Poliesportiu Municipal Na Capellera in Manacor.

Manacor vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Manacor vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas