Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1–0 Manacor: Result & Stats

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Manacor

Xesc Navalón 73'

9/24/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 3Estadi Municipal Can Misses III

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas55%

×Draw24%

Manacor20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ibiza Islas PitiusasExpected goals in this matchManacor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.89

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.66

Manacor

0.89

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 87% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 114 away

2.14

creates per match

1.34

0.44

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.14

Manacor

1.34

allows per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.44

Manacor

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Manacor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas ↓

Manacor →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw

80%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or Manacor

76%

Draw or Manacor

45%

Winning margin

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

30%

Manacor wins by 2+

Team goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

81%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

49%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

23%

Manacor 1+ goals

59%

Manacor 2+ goals

22%

Manacor 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

73%

Manacor (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.44 · 43 matches

Manacor away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.18 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.14 + Manacor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.66

Manacor attack 1.34 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

55%

level

24%

Manacor scores more

20%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

Victor Barber← Sergio Barroso

59'

Carlos Fernández← Álex Sánchez

64'

Alberto Pareja← Alberto Sastre

64'

Toni Florit← Biel Gili

67'

Dani Sales← Pablo Cortijo

67'

C. Carosso← Airam López

70'

Joan Mari← R. Chakroun

73'

Xesc Navalón

81'

Gorka Marin← Xesc Navalón

Ibiza

Manacor

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Navalón

▼

Sánchez

Felipao

Manager: Raúl Casañ

59'▲Carlos Fernández←▼Álex Sánchez

67'▲Dani Sales←▼Pablo Cortijo

67'▲C. Carosso←▼Airam López

81'▲Gorka Marin←▼Xesc Navalón

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

FernándezSalesCarossoMarin

Manager: Jaume Mut

28'▲Victor Barber←▼Sergio Barroso

64'▲Alberto Pareja←▼Alberto Sastre

64'▲Toni Florit←▼Biel Gili

70'▲Joan Mari←▼R. Chakroun

Manacor substitutes

BarberParejaFloritMari

Match Recap: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Manacor

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Manacor 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on September 24, 2023.

Goals: Xesc Navalón (73').

The match was played at Estadi Municipal Can Misses III in Eivissa.

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Manacor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Manacor