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Manacor vs Arenal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Manacor
Manacor
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Arenal
Arenal
4/20/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 30Poliesportiu Municipal Na Capellera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Manacor64%
×Draw21%
Arenal15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manacor
1.95
Arenal
0.83

Manacor creates 135% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 17 away

creates per match

Manacor
1.96
Arenal
0.59

allows per match

Manacor
1.07
Arenal
1.94

finishing

Manacor+0.00on par
Arenal+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manacor ↓

Arenal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Manacor or draw
85%
Manacor or Arenal
79%
Draw or Arenal
36%

Winning margin

Manacor wins by 2+
38%
Arenal wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Manacor 1+ goals
86%
Manacor 2+ goals
58%
Manacor 3+ goals
31%
Arenal 1+ goals
56%
Arenal 2+ goals
20%
Arenal 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Manacor (draw refunded)
81%
Arenal (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manacor at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.07 · 115 matches

Arenal away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manacor attack 1.96 + Arenal defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.95

Arenal attack 0.59 + Manacor defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Manacor scores more
64%
level
21%
Arenal scores more
15%

Manacor at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Manacor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Manacor 3–1 Arenal

Manacor beat Arenal 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Poliesportiu Municipal Na Capellera in Manacor.