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Arenal vs Manacor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Arenal
Arenal
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Manacor
Manacor
12/2/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 13Estadio Son Verí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Arenal29%
×Draw26%
Manacor44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenal
1.12
Manacor
1.44

Manacor creates 29% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 114 away

creates per match

Arenal
1.06
Manacor
1.34

allows per match

Arenal
1.53
Manacor
1.18

finishing

Arenal+0.00on par
Manacor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenal ↓

Manacor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Arenal or draw
56%
Arenal or Manacor
74%
Draw or Manacor
71%

Winning margin

Arenal wins by 2+
12%
Manacor wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Arenal 1+ goals
67%
Arenal 2+ goals
31%
Arenal 3+ goals
10%
Manacor 1+ goals
76%
Manacor 2+ goals
42%
Manacor 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Arenal (draw refunded)
40%
Manacor (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenal at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Manacor away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.18 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenal attack 1.06 + Manacor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.12

Manacor attack 1.34 + Arenal defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Arenal scores more
29%
level
26%
Manacor scores more
44%

Manacor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Manacor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Arenal 1–3 Manacor

Manacor beat Arenal 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Son Verí in S'Arenal de Llucmajor.