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Mamry Giżycko vs ŁKS Łódź II — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Mamry Giżycko
Mamry Giżycko
FT
1 – 3
ŁKS Łódź II
ŁKS Łódź II
S. Lapinski 7'
M. Radaszkiewicz 59' (pen)
J. Romanowicz 44' (pen)
J. Kuzma 31'
9/11/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Stadion Miejski MOSIR Giżycko

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Mamry Giżycko28%
×Draw24%
ŁKS Łódź II48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamry Giżycko
1.23
ŁKS Łódź II
1.69

ŁKS Łódź II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 35 away

creates per match

Mamry Giżycko
1.17
ŁKS Łódź II
1.66

allows per match

Mamry Giżycko
1.72
ŁKS Łódź II
1.29

finishing

Mamry Giżycko+0.00on par
ŁKS Łódź II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamry Giżycko ↓

ŁKS Łódź II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Mamry Giżycko or draw
52%
Mamry Giżycko or ŁKS Łódź II
76%
Draw or ŁKS Łódź II
72%

Winning margin

Mamry Giżycko wins by 2+
11%
ŁKS Łódź II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Mamry Giżycko 1+ goals
71%
Mamry Giżycko 2+ goals
35%
Mamry Giżycko 3+ goals
13%
ŁKS Łódź II 1+ goals
82%
ŁKS Łódź II 2+ goals
50%
ŁKS Łódź II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Mamry Giżycko (draw refunded)
37%
ŁKS Łódź II (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamry Giżycko at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

ŁKS Łódź II away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamry Giżycko attack 1.17 + ŁKS Łódź II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

ŁKS Łódź II attack 1.66 + Mamry Giżycko defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mamry Giżycko scores more
28%
level
24%
ŁKS Łódź II scores more
48%

ŁKS Łódź II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
S. Lapinski
31'
J. Kuzma
44'
J. RomanowiczPenalty
59'
M. RadaszkiewiczPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mamry Giżycko vs ŁKS Łódź II

ŁKS Łódź II beat Mamry Giżycko 3-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 11, 2021.

Goals: S. Lapinski (7'), J. Kuzma (31'), J. Romanowicz (44' pen), M. Radaszkiewicz (59' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Miejski MOSIR Giżycko in Giżycko.