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ŁKS Łódź II vs Mamry Giżycko — III Liga - Group 1 2020

ŁKS Łódź II
ŁKS Łódź II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Mamry Giżycko
Mamry Giżycko
P. Gryszkiewicz 18'
L. Dynel 15'
Fabio 47'
4/23/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Akademia ŁKS Łódź

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

ŁKS Łódź II58%
×Draw20%
Mamry Giżycko22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ŁKS Łódź II
2.19
Mamry Giżycko
1.29

ŁKS Łódź II creates 70% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 18 away

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź II
2.31
Mamry Giżycko
1.22

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź II
1.37
Mamry Giżycko
2.06

finishing

ŁKS Łódź II+0.00on par
Mamry Giżycko+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź II ↓

Mamry Giżycko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź II or draw
78%
ŁKS Łódź II or Mamry Giżycko
80%
Draw or Mamry Giżycko
42%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź II wins by 2+
35%
Mamry Giżycko wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź II 1+ goals
89%
ŁKS Łódź II 2+ goals
64%
ŁKS Łódź II 3+ goals
37%
Mamry Giżycko 1+ goals
72%
Mamry Giżycko 2+ goals
37%
Mamry Giżycko 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź II (draw refunded)
72%
Mamry Giżycko (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź II at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

Mamry Giżycko away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź II attack 2.31 + Mamry Giżycko defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.19

Mamry Giżycko attack 1.22 + ŁKS Łódź II defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

ŁKS Łódź II scores more
58%
level
20%
Mamry Giżycko scores more
22%

ŁKS Łódź II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
L. Dynel
18'
P. Gryszkiewicz
47'
Fabio
89'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: ŁKS Łódź II 2–1 Mamry Giżycko

ŁKS Łódź II beat Mamry Giżycko 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on April 23, 2022.

Goals: L. Dynel (15'), P. Gryszkiewicz (18'), Fabio (47').

The match was played at Akademia ŁKS Łódź in Łódź.