Mamry Giżycko 0–1 Jagiellonia II: Result & Stats

Mamry Giżycko

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Jagiellonia II

M. Wasilewski 7'

5/27/2022

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 34Stadion Miejski MOSIR Giżycko

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Mamry Giżycko34%

×Draw24%

Jagiellonia II42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mamry GiżyckoExpected goals in this matchJagiellonia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.60

Mamry Giżycko

1.42

Jagiellonia II

1.60

Jagiellonia II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 103 away

1.17

creates per match

1.48

1.72

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Mamry Giżycko

1.17

Jagiellonia II

1.48

allows per match

Mamry Giżycko

1.72

Jagiellonia II

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mamry Giżycko+0.00on par

Jagiellonia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamry Giżycko ↓

Jagiellonia II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Mamry Giżycko or draw

58%

Mamry Giżycko or Jagiellonia II

76%

Draw or Jagiellonia II

66%

Winning margin

Mamry Giżycko wins by 2+

16%

Jagiellonia II wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Mamry Giżycko 1+ goals

76%

Mamry Giżycko 2+ goals

41%

Mamry Giżycko 3+ goals

17%

Jagiellonia II 1+ goals

80%

Jagiellonia II 2+ goals

47%

Jagiellonia II 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Mamry Giżycko (draw refunded)

45%

Jagiellonia II (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamry Giżycko at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Jagiellonia II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.67 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamry Giżycko attack 1.17 + Jagiellonia II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Jagiellonia II attack 1.48 + Mamry Giżycko defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mamry Giżycko scores more

34%

level

24%

Jagiellonia II scores more

42%

Jagiellonia II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jagiellonia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

M. Wasilewski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff