Jagiellonia II 0–1 Mamry Giżycko: Result & Stats

Jagiellonia II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mamry Giżycko

M. Bucio 65'

12/4/2021

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Ośrodek Szkoleniowy Jagiellonii Białystok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Jagiellonia II50%

×Draw22%

Mamry Giżycko28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jagiellonia IIExpected goals in this matchMamry Giżycko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.38

Jagiellonia II

1.91

Mamry Giżycko

1.38

Jagiellonia II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 18 away

1.76

creates per match

1.22

1.53

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Jagiellonia II

1.76

Mamry Giżycko

1.22

allows per match

Jagiellonia II

1.53

Mamry Giżycko

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jagiellonia II+0.00on par

Mamry Giżycko+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia II ↓

Mamry Giżycko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Jagiellonia II or draw

72%

Jagiellonia II or Mamry Giżycko

78%

Draw or Mamry Giżycko

50%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia II wins by 2+

28%

Mamry Giżycko wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Jagiellonia II 1+ goals

85%

Jagiellonia II 2+ goals

57%

Jagiellonia II 3+ goals

30%

Mamry Giżycko 1+ goals

75%

Mamry Giżycko 2+ goals

40%

Mamry Giżycko 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia II (draw refunded)

64%

Mamry Giżycko (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.53 · 104 matches

Mamry Giżycko away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia II attack 1.76 + Mamry Giżycko defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.91

Mamry Giżycko attack 1.22 + Jagiellonia II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jagiellonia II scores more

50%

level

22%

Mamry Giżycko scores more

28%

Jagiellonia II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jagiellonia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'

M. Bucio

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff